Is Mike Ashley The New Blackadder?

Many of us watched the goings on at the Sports Direct AGM yesterday open-mouthed at the level of drama being acted out both on and off the stage.

Shareholder revolts are nothing new, and Ashley and Keith Hellawell surely had it coming, especially as it emerged recently that Hellawell had attempted to dodge the bullet of criticism by tendering his resignation before the company published its damning review into working practices.

One of the major criticisms being lobbed at Mike Ashley is the treatment his staff have to endure as a result of regular end of shift searches.  So it was doubly ironic that yesterday he suffered the same ignominy under the full glare of the cameras.

One wonders if the inclusion of a huge wad of fifty pound notes in his trouser pocket was a deliberate attempt at bravado.  The search came as part of a tour of the warehouse facilities Ashley was leading, presumably as part of an attempt to show improved working practices. He must have known it was going to happen, so the appearance of that crisp wedge of cash would have been unavoidable.  Or perhaps he’s just so loaded he forgot about that bit of loose change in his trousers.  If that’s the case perhaps he should be renamed Blackadder after this scene from the show.

What it says about Ashley rather belies the impression I got of him at the recent Parliamentary inquiry he attended.  I wrote the column below for Retail Week last Month, but after yesterday’s performance I think I may have to revise my assessment.

He may still like to consider my suggestions for improvements in working conditions though, even though they may rob him of future chances to whip his wad out when he needs to make an entrance.

I stand by my judgement on Philip Green however, who seems to get more loathsome by the day.  As an ambassador for all that’s great about retail success, he’s about as welcome as a turd in a swimming pool.  Even if that swimming pool is on board a 100 million pound penis extension.  The recent ‘renaming’ of his fabulous yacht by comedian Lee Nelson rather summed up my feelings and probably those of the thousands of BHS staff and pension holders he’s helped to leave in dry dock


My Column from Retail Week 11th August

Watching the recent Parliamentary appearances of Mike Ashley and Sir Philip Green, I was surprised to find myself warming slightly to Mr Ashley, something I’d never have imagined possible a few months ago.

That said it was rather like deciding which dastardly stage villain you’d most like to share a stage with, or perhaps a better analogy would be the pantomime horse.

In Green’s case he came across as arrogant and resentful.  Quite obviously certain in his belief that he was better than every person in the chamber.

It was a performance of bravado and bluster that, if I had my psychologist’s hat on, I’d say was more over-compensation than real attitude.  But then considering he apparently needs one yacht for himself and several others for his ego, I might be giving him a far too sympathetic analysis.

In both cases it’s apparent that they were less concerned about how their behaviour reflected on their own companies than they perhaps should be.  A blasé attitude that their customers will remain loyal to their brands, regardless of their attitude to the usual social mores that constrain the rest of us.

Ratner Moment

They may be right, but I wonder how far we’ve really moved on from the days when a mis-timed joke can bring down a company, as we saw with Gerald Ratner 25 years ago (yes it really has been that long!).  There but for the grace of the god of retail goes any of us.

With that in mind I remain baffled over Sir Phil’s nonchalance at being photographed relaxing on the deck of his third multi-million pound status symbol, while BHS sinks slowly to the bottom with the loss of almost all hands.  As Gerald discovered to his cost, timing is everything.

Mike Ashley at least looked like he was taking the questions being asked seriously though.  Considering he reportedly had to be dragged to Parliament ‘kicking and screaming’ he seemed to warm to the experience remarkably well.

His main defence against the revelations of questionable staff treatment at his distribution warehouses was ignorance of the circumstances and practices going on inside his own company.

I’m not going to speculate about the veracity of that claim, but as in many walks of life, as with MPs, doctors, military leaders, and business owners, the fault ultimately lies with the person at the top.  They set the tone and decide the ethos and culture of the organisation.  It’s really not a defence to say ‘Not me guv!’.

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The culture in Sports Direct seems to be one of expediency and antipathy.  A strata of mistrust that runs through the company from the warehouse and shop floor staff upwards.  A belief that everyone is out to get everyone else.

Ashley expressed dismay that the daily searches of warehouse staff were taking longer than they did when he set them up 10 years earlier.  But in that admission he confirms that the general tone of the relationship between staff and management remains one of distrust.

Trust

Perhaps he’s right to feel that way, but that does beg the question as to why they would employ staff that they did not have absolute faith in.  Perhaps past experience informed their actions and the belief that they would be robbed blind if they didn’t watch everyone like a hawk.

To me that lack of trust seems to be at the heart of the problems at Sports Direct.  Sadly, rather than dealing with that, Ashley has pushed to improve the searching procedures to reduce the ‘bottlenecks’ at the end of shifts.

But another approach would have been to foster more loyalty in his workforce so that they might be less inclined to help themselves to a five-fingered bonus in the first place.

The culture in Sports Direct seems to be one of expediency and antipathy.  A strata of mistrust that runs through the company from the warehouse and shop floor staff upwards.  A belief that everyone is out to get everyone else.

Studies carried out many years ago showed an inverse relationship between company culture, pay levels, job security and the problem of pilfering.  In my own company, selling many easily pocketable items of high value, we never resorted to body searches.  I did consider them on occasions, but felt that the damage they would do to morale and staff relationships weren’t worth the small amounts that we undoubtedly lost over the years.

And with stringent stock control procedures in place, and – most importantly – seen to be in place, we knew the losses were minimal, even though on one occasion we had to have the manager and all the staff in a branch arrested over cash handling irregularities.

The key for me was that we had a good relationship with our staff and there was mutual trust and respect.  I’m firmly convinced that prevented just as much shrinkage as any number of cavity searches, body scanners and security staff.

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So as Mike Ashley starts to get to grips with the managerial problems within a company that he admits may have outgrown previous internal audit procedures, he could perhaps do worse than take a look down the other end of the telescope.  Put himself in the place of his workforce who, if recent reports are to be believed, feel undervalued, under-paid and under suspicion.

A more open and meritocratic attitude towards HR management has so often been cited as the root of success in many companies, most notably in the IT sector.  Likewise success in retail doesn’t have to come down to the hard nosed antisympathetic treatment of those who work for you and with you.

Moreover, in terms of customer facing businesses like ours, we certainly don’t need our leading lights to be seen in the media as disconnected, uncaring profiteers.  Or to be dubbed by the press as “Rude, unprofessional and bad-tempered”.

Indeed as we’re finding out now, in a supposedly more enlightened and informed world, such behaviour could not only be counter-productive, it may even lead to another ‘Ratner moment’ in the very near future.

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BHS – The ‘Dead Store Walking’ That Never Really Had a Chance

BHSI greeted the news of the sale of BHS to Retail Acquisitions with the same feeling of incredulity I’d previously experienced over Gordon Brother’s purchase of the ailing Blockbuster chain in 2013.

It seemed like a crazy buy, not least because if a canny businessman like Philip Green wants to shake hands on the sale of a major company for £1, you’d better count your fingers carefully afterwards.

The CVA details, released last month, revealed just how crazy it was. With a massive pension fund hole, debts of around £1.3bn and ongoing trading losses, it was going to take a miracle of biblical proportions to rescue the company for even the most experienced retail turnaround specialist. For someone like Dominic Chappell – a retail novice with several failed companies and a personal bankruptcy behind him – it was totally doolally.

The other thing that bothered me was the name of the company – Retail Acquisitions – which suggests that its primary aim was to acquire the stores, rather than to actually run them.

BHS was a dead store walking and I suspect Sir Green knew that when he sold it. Even the previously over-optimistic Gordon Brothers refused to sanction a £60m loan to Chappell for BHS, which if nothing else at least shows that they did their sums properly this time before leaping head first into another obviously doomed turnaround fiasco.

Dodging the Bullet

There are very few upsides to any of this, but I can’t help thinking how much worse things could have been had Philip Green also managed to buy M&S back in 2004. Already 4 years into his stewardship of BHS by then, one can only wonder if both these venerable old stores would have ended up in the mincer.

bulletM&S still has it’s problems, but it’s taken a far more robust route towards re-inventing itself than was ever evident at BHS. Updated, more up-market branding, a re-positioned clothing offer and a far more efficient front of house has kept Marks and Sparks out of the clutches of the receiver. Above all though it seems that dodging the bullet of being added to the Green portfolio was a far greater benefit to it’s survival.

The tired, confused and cluttered shop floor that greets you in BHS these days screams underinvestment and shredded staff morale. It’s been clear for years that Sir Phil had no idea what to do with BHS. In it’s final days under his stewardship, it was stuffed with poorly executed Arcadia brand concessions making it even less likely that shoppers would cross the threshold.

Essentially there was little inside that wasn’t already available elsewhere. This would also prove to be an Achilles heel for the new owners, leaving them very little room for manoeuvre in re-inventing the stock offer to attract new customers.

A late-to-the-party, rather shonky website did nothing to lift the image of a brand that was already years past it’s sell by date by the time it hit the net. The last gasp flirtation with a food offer shortly before selling the chain suggests the company had finally resorted to plagiarism of the more successful sectors of the M&S operation in a half-hearted attempt to turn the super-tanker before it hit the rocks.

Questions Need Answers

Given Sir Phil’s legendary retail acumen, it’s a conundrum as to why he wasn’t able to breathe new life into BHS rather than bail out. It’s almost like he wasn’t trying. Ultimately his priority was not to be on the apple cart when the wheels came off, which in business terms was a great move for him, but rather a bad one for his staff and creditors.

As shadow business secretary Angela Eagle has pointed out, there are still questions that need answers, especially if it’s it’s going to be left to the taxpayer to make up shortfalls in redundancies and pensions.

cash wheelbarrowI hope in the spirit of openness and transparency recently inspired by his friend David Cameron, Sir Phil will be just as forthright about his own personal financial arrangements. I’m sure speculation that, during the 15 years of his ownership, he trousered remuneration roughly equal to the hole in the pension fund is just a random quirk of inconsequential coincidence.

Likewise, there’s also some concern about pay-outs to Retail Acquisitions that may not have been entirely appropriate in the circumstances. It’s now expected that the company will be called before MPs to explain some of its actions in the run up to the collapse.

Even if there was a plan to relaunch the brand after the buy out, it’s become apparent over recent weeks that this was secondary to re-financing the company. Something that should have been in place long before the new owners picked up the keys.

Speculation

Speculation will now be rife about the future for BHS. A pre-pack resurrection deal seems unlikely considering the complexity of the situation and the continuing dead weight of the pension fund. That would also seem to preclude the option of a buyer being found for the company as a going concern. Even so, according to the administrators, there have been numerous expressions of ‘serious interest’ from prospective buyers. But I suspect it’s the nature of that interest that will be the rub.


I’m sure speculation that, during the 15 years of his ownership, he trousered remuneration roughly equal to the hole in the pension fund is just a random quirk of inconsequential coincidence.


If it does shutter it’s doors, it’s likely that BHS sized hole in our high street will be more difficult to fill now than it was after the demise of Woolworths in 2008. Not just as physical space, but in terms economic and societal impact of so many job and creditor losses. The announcement a few days ago of the collapse of Austin Reed will make that even more acute.

WooliesWhen Woolies went down there were plenty of takers from the bargain end of the retail spectrum eager to gain extra floor space. That sector is largely saturated now, although B&M Bargains are apparently eying some of the BHS portfolio.

Dominic Chappell himself is also reported to be keen to extend his BHS pipedream by buying back the majority of the company from the administrators using yet more borrowed money, this time from the USA. This smacks to me now more of obsession than sound business sense and I can see no reason why we wouldn’t just see a re-run of the last 14 months.

Let’s hope then that reports of viable rescue plans prove to be more than the wishful thinking of the administrators, and that if any part of the company can be saved, the future owners have pockets deep enough to allow them to concentrate on the business of retail rather than of finance.

Are Small Retailers Becoming an Endangered Species?

Cecil_the_lion_in__3388298bThe illegal killing of Cecil the lion has generated many column inches about the protection of endangered species. In an admittedly tangential intellectual leap, I’ve been wondering if we should be adding another dying breed to the danger list – that of the independent retailer.

It seems that just like many animal populations in the wild, retailers who colonise once abandoned areas and make them fruitful again, tend to attract the unwanted attention of bigger game looking for an easy kill.

Currently the country’s richest landowner, the Duke of Westminster is planning to bulldoze a chunk of the Pimlico Road, regardless of the fact that he’ll be rolling the heavy machinery over a raft of long established and successful independent stores.

Unfortunately for them, it’s not enough that the property is earning more than it’s keep and probably appreciating faster than Tracy Emin’s unwashed bed socks. The assets must be sweated, even though they’re already soaked in years of perspiration, squeezed from the brows of those who’s businesses trade from them.

Passport to Pimlico

The Pimlico Road has become a magnet for interior designers and anyone looking for something a little out of the ordinary. The antithesis of what chain stores provide, by their very nature. Yet buoyed, no doubt, by the increased footfall these niche stores have inspired, Grosvenor’s plans are reportedly to develop gargantuan retail units that they believe will be more attractive to larger international brands.


Developers now fish in a gene pool that is becoming progressively more shallow, producing a retail mono-culture where they no longer understand or apparently care about the requirements for smaller operators, except as pop-ups of convenience or a bit of garnish to their main offer, usually in the form of RMUs.


And this isn’t an isolated case. We’ve seen similar changes in character to destinations such as Burlington Arcade, Spitalfeilds and Covent Garden. In central London, galleries in Cork Street and Dover Street have been lost, and even bespoke menswear stores and tailor’s workshops that gave streets like Savile Row their iconic status around the world have been ground under the developer’s heel. While London may be the vanguard for these culls at the moment, it’s a strategy that’s starting to gain ground, literally, around the whole of the UK.

When I entered the high street over 20 years ago, I remember even the most hard nosed property managers being supportive of smaller operators. Not only did they appreciate your staying power, but they saw your business as providing that extra spark and diversity that kept their developments attractive to both consumers and prospective tenants.

Retail SSI

There now seems only to be a headlong pitch towards bigger, brasher and more expensive spaces with scant regard for anything a smaller retailer, let alone a start-up, could occupy. New malls for example now rarely offer spaces small or affordable enough for indies to even contemplate.

Developers now fish in a gene pool that is becoming progressively more shallow, producing a retail mono-culture where they no longer understand or apparently care about the requirements for smaller operators, except as pop-ups of convenience or a bit of garnish to their main offer, usually in the form of RMUs.

protected-species-sign-on-gate-postSo where does that leave the small retailer of the future? If every time a secondary or tertiary location is popularised that’s taken as a cue to erase their existence, where will innovation and verve come from on the high street? Certainly not from the ‘me too’ generation of international brands, over-hyped and over here, rolling out virtually the same products and service models as every other chain store.

Perhaps in the same way that sites of special scientific interest are protected by government statute, we should have sites of special retail interest, where smaller businesses can be shielded from the worst excesses of re-development.And this isn’t just starry eyed idealism. Without space for new entrants into the retail landscape, where will our chain stores and national retailers of the future come from? We can’t expect every successful online business to have a yen for a more physical presence.

In the same way that vulnerable animals need to be protected from the sophisticated firepower of modern hunters, business innovation needs space to breed and expand, outside of what is rapidly becoming a very one sided fight.

Most conservationists will tell you that habitat erosion is one of the largest causes of extinction events. Maybe the world of retail property management also needs to learn that lesson before it’s too late.

This article was also published as one of my regular columns for Retail Week Magazine

The Undercover Analyst – Checking the Numbers on Mobile Phone Stores

main logo blueIt’s time for another of my regular checks on high street operators in association with retail analysis experts ShopperTrak. This time I’m looking at mobile phone stores, a category we’ve seen explode over the past 10-15 years and one which has come to dominate our high streets. As always these reports are written after actual visits to selected un-named stores and will focus on areas such as store design, operation, staff management and customer service.

Ok, I’ll admit it, I’m a bit of a gadget freak.

I spent my youth dreaming of the kinds of gizmos that now populate our everyday lives. Star Trek style talking computers, Blade Runner video phones, Batman’s wrist worn communicator and, not forgetting, jet packs.

The last item on my list might still be a way off, but the others are all with us now in ways that most of us have come to regard as just a normal part of our ordinary lives. Those of us who can remember the days before you could stand in the middle of nowhere and to speak to someone on the other side of the world, simply by reaching into your pocket, probably won’t appreciate how mind blowing that still is. The fact that such technology has now settled in as part of the mundanity of every high street might have something to do with that.

JetstonsThese stores sell us brain meltingly complicated technology in much the same way as we’d pick up a packet of kidney beans in our local supermarket. In fact, in many cases, we could do both under the same roof. It’s technology Jim, but not as we knew it!

For this outing into the new frontier of consumer electronics I chose a road I once frequented on a regular basis looking for the latest in Hi-fi and sound equipment. Tottenham Court road in the 80s and 90s was THE place to come for the latest sleek sound system at knock down prices. Part of the process in those days was to visit every store looking for the best deal, before playing each shop off against one another. I have to admit that’s a bargaining technique that stood me in good stead in future years in business.

It was therefore saddening to see upon my return, that my choice of electronics stores these days was not as diverse as it once was It is predominantly populated with mobile phone stores, with only a few of the store fascias I remember from the old days.

I chose to visit three mainstream mobile phone shops to make direct comparisons between them. As they are all selling exactly the same hardware, with only notional differences in tariff offers, it was quite easy to gauge how they stacked up against each other.

The Price is Wrong

The first store was arranged all on one floor so my arrival was easily visible to all the staff, who immediately came over and spoke to me. I could also see that other customers were being dealt with throughout the store. Thankfully, there wasn’t too much of the hard sell which can be common in similar stores.

oopsThere was some impressive up-selling going on from the outset as the store manager who had approached me enquired about the status of my current mobile contract. Interesting that these days no one ever assumes that you wouldn’t have a mobile phone!

Mobile phone stores are now gradually diversifying into ancillary products and this particular store had a good range of headphones, presumably for those who also use their phones as MP3 devices. I enquired about the price on a pair that caught my eye and this is where the fun began.

The price displayed said £160 which both I and the sales adviser felt was a tad on the high side. On checking the computer it turned out he was right, the actual price was an infinitely more reasonable £25! Neatly proving the advantage that a human has over a machine generated price tag. It also suggests that this company might need to double check their merchandising procedures! Regular shop floor and merchandising audits have been a feature of my own stores and really should be carried out at least once a month. This neatly demonstrates why.

Overall though it, was a very neat and well run store. A good experience.

ShopperTrak Says – Using retail analytics, it is possible to measure the success of different initiatives, including new customer service programmes and training to make sure your sales staff devote their full attention to engaging with the customer at the right time.

Wall of Death

In store number two, customer interaction seemed like it was top of the agenda as I was greeted by a designated staff member from behind a podium at the entrance.

Sadly, this seemed to be the limit of the initiative as I was then confronted by a human wall consisting of 4 sales staff in a line, each chatting to each other and apparently oblivious to my presence.

This was a store that appeared to know what was needed but was supremely bad at delivering it. Displays were messy and in desperate need of a spring clean. In one corner I noticed a seating area with charging points for phones, presumably there to increase dwell time in the store. A good idea in theory, although the floor was grubby and the chairs looked like they’d seen better days. There were no magazines or other literature for me to read and the idea of any refreshments being available seemed a forlorn hope.

ShopperTrak says – It’s crucial that retailers look at labour allocation in order to strike a happy balance between the number of customers entering the store and the availability of staff on hand to greet and serve. Shopper traffic data provides retailers with their truest measurement of sales opportunity, which is key to effectively scheduling labour. By scheduling the appropriate amount of employees and the best sales staff with the hours of greatest opportunity, it is possible to turn labour from an expense into a strategic sales tool. This includes including identifying when there is too many staff on the shop floor. During our visit, staff far outweighed customers.

I made a hasty exit past the still self absorbed sales staff and headed for store number 3.

Open For Business

On first appearance, my final mobile phone store looked like it was going to be a bit of a wash out. Visual merchandising was pretty weak with a painfully sparse window display seemingly based on an odd cardboard box theme.

break-time-coffeeOnce inside, however, it was a completely different story – an effective layout with lots of opportunities to interact with products and plenty of customers being attended to on a one to one basis. There seemed to be a high number of staff and no one appeared to be kept waiting – a great result! The displays were clear and informative and would have kept me amused for a fair while even if there was a short delay in service.

I noticed there was a downstairs area so I headed off to investigate, finding a similar seating area to the one in the previous store. But that’s where the similarity ended. The execution of the idea here was far more accomplished. There were the same plug in stations for your phone or laptop, but the area was clean with a designer look sofa, plenty of literature to read a tea and coffee station, water cooler and even a well stocked fruit bowl! It looked like a place you could have stayed for lunch, although you might eventually have to buy something for the sake of appearances!

The final touch was the availability of meeting rooms adjacent to the seating area. Not something I’ve ever seen in a store before, but somehow it seemed to fit with the general ethos. It had a real ‘open for business’ feel and I’m sure this area could generate spin-off sales of their technology products. Something other similar stores could learn from.

ShopperTrak says – The break-out area was a real nod to the ‘retailtainment’ trend, going beyond just selling to shoppers, to entertain , and inspire them by providing the best possible shopping experience. In this case, the lounge was the perfect opportunity to say, ‘come on in, stay a while’. By encouraging shoppers to spend longer in the store, retailers increase the likelihood of shoppers making a purchase.

However, the measure of a good window display cannot be underestimated., if potential clients do not feel the pull to come into the there is no amount of entertainment inside the store that will help drive new sales, Being aware of pass by traffic peaks and having attractive window displays can really boost draw rates and as a consequence new sales.

This more positive experience marked the end of my survey of the mobile operators. Overall they seemed a mixed bag. Some good ideas in terms of design and add-on services, but in a few cases this wasn’t backed up by staff with enough engagement for my liking. The other interesting aspect was the expansion into other categories which seems to be a common factor in many retail sectors these days. With the merger of Dixons and Carphone Warehouse still fresh in our minds I wonder how long we’ll continue to see mobile phone stores on the high street dedicated only to this one narrow aspect of technology.

In an attempt to answer that question, I’ll be taking a look at how the wider technology sector is faring in my next report in a few weeks time. So don’t touch that dial folks!  For more information on ShopperTrak’s full range of analytic services by click the link below.

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The Undercover Analyst – Luxuriating In Manchester

main logo blueAs part of a project with retail analytics experts ShopperTrak, I’m continuing my look at the retail landscape in areas around the UK and sharing some insights through regular blog posts.  Taking a broad cross section of market sectors and visiting unnamed stores, I comment on how they fare on specific operational areas I and ShopperTrak regard as being key to a successful and customer responsive store.  I’m looking for good and bad practices, innovative ideas and exemplars for all of us to either follow or avoid in our own businesses.  This time I’ve been looking at high end luxury stores in the centre of Manchester.

One could define luxury as any product that isn’t an essential. In that sense anything other than one pair of shoes at a time would be seen as excessive, unless of course you’re a centipede. But of course we all buy things we want rather than need, and in that sense we all indulge in luxury to some extent.

Having run a chain of jewellery stores for the past 20 years, it seemed like a natural step for me to look at this sector for the next of my occasional blogs in association with ShopperTrak, and for this outing I chose the city centre in Manchester on a busy Saturday afternoon.

Since the horrendous bombing of 1996 which wiped out nearly a third of its retail space, there has been a positive renaissance of retail offer in the city. Luxury stores are very well represented and I found a good range of mid to high end opulence to choose from. I went to three stores. Two within what has become a luxury enclave within the mainstream shopping locale, and one in the more business orientated sector.

I think I can speak with some authority on how luxury shopping should be done. It’s not really a complicated proposition. You provide a cosseting but inspiring atmosphere and you have on hand a team of well trained and well-presented staff that have all mastered the art of engaging with customers without pestering them. The final ingredient is to have a good range of aspirational products at the right price. It’s pretty much like any other retail proposition except maybe the price issue isn’t quite such an imperative.

Quick off the Mark

The first store I visited was that of an iconic British brand. Stock was principally aimed at women with what appeared to be an afterthought nod towards menswear.

Of late this company has been struggling somewhat which might be why the sales staff seemed so eager to see me. I was the only person in the shop at the time, and as a result, I was approached by 3 sales advisers inside 5 minutes. They were well presented and pleasant, but their patter sounded slightly scripted to me.

runners+starting+blockThere’s nothing wrong with attentive staff, but you do need to give customers room to breathe. The rule with my own staff was always to greet customers when they entered the store and then leave them alone for at least a couple of minutes. There was a high ratio of staff to customers here though, so perhaps they needed to co-ordinate more.

In a luxury environment it’s easy to over-staff. Apple stores, for example, have a deliberate policy of no signage to encourage customers to ask for help. This works well but you have to be on top of your game in terms of availability of advisers. People paying these prices don’t like to queue!

The store layout was rather self defeating, and seemed to be largely making the best of a pretty lacklustre job. A stairwell that took you to the second floor was located very close to the entrance, which I imagine diverts a fair number of browsers away from the sales area on the ground floor. Also, considering this was a store obviously aimed at women, it seemed incongruous to me that their target demographic had to plod up a flight of stairs to get to the merchandise. Not a great strategic move and something I would have expected to have been re-modelled during the fit-out.

Visual merchandising was on the poor side, and there was no opportunity for direct digital interaction. One member of staff was toting an iPad, although it was unclear if this was for a customer service role, or just internal use.

Considering this company has recently invested heavily in omnichannel, it was odd that this didn’t seem to be heavily integrated into the store. One other peculiarity that struck me was the lack of in-store music. Something I would have thought would be de rigueur in any similar retail environment.

ShopperTrak says: The nature of the luxury sector means that the ratio of shoppers to staff can, on occasion, become unbalanced. Location based analytics can help retailers to identify their busiest periods, highlighting when there are too many – or too few – staff on the shop floor as a result. This helps teams to allocate resources effectively, ensuring that the customer is only greeted once. Each store has a unique DNA and knowing when to greet the customer depends largely on the nature of the store. Armed with this knowledge, retailers have the power to make decisions relevant to their own environment.

iPads are an increasingly important sales and transaction tool within the physical store, with staff now able to offer shoppers the opportunity to buy stock that may not be available in-store, there and then. Luxury retailers can measure the impact of in-store technology by carrying out test periods, tapping in to data to see what effect these periods are having on conversion rates. Brands can also use location based analytics to monitor the success of digital screens and displays by seeing how long customers are lingering in areas with digital features.

A New Dimension

The second store on my luxurious odyssey was only a short distance away from the first but it was like stepping into an entirely different dimension. It was obviously a fairly new fit out and had taken advantage of many of the contemporary twists now available. There was an impressive open aspect design, well thought out with a much more focussed approach to merchandising and display. This store showed just how much impact a well thought our environment can make to your experience, assuming you have the budget to spend.

in store screenVisual merchandising was well implemented with window displays cleverly arranged so that items in the window grabbed your attention and directed it towards matched displays further inside the store. This had the effect of drawing you instantly in. Digital was well integrated throughout, with screens showing footage of the merchandise featured in runway shows. You know you’d arrived at fashion central when you stepped into this store. These aspects also caught customer’s attention and increased general dwell times.

The fit out was heavily weighted towards experiential aspects that engaged you with the brand rather than pointing you towards specific products. It has that quintessentially unhurried atmosphere, enhanced by nice touches such as a chill-out area near the changing rooms, with sofas, magazines and hot drinks available. This echoes stores such as cycle Mecca Rapha, where customers are encouraged to simply hang out rather than being pressurised to buy.

Staff were equally laid back, but all seemed to be busy and focussed on key areas of the store. The location of sales advisers at any given point seemed strategic, so that they could move seamlessly from housekeeping activities to customer service when needed. I was approached after 3-4 minutes browsing – A much better timeframe for initial interaction. I felt like I could take my time, but someone would be available as soon as I need them.

Overall this store was an example of exactly how well a store can be laid out and operated, assuming money is no object.

ShopperTrak says: The shopping experience is constantly changing with the brick and mortar store no longer just somewhere to purchase products. Rather, it is now an environment in which to be inspired, entertained or just to relax, with the ‘retailtainment’ trend high on the agenda for much of the luxury sector.

The chill-out zone in this particular store is a fantastic example of this and a great initiative that encourages shoppers to spend substantial time in-store. However, it’s important that retailers monitor the success of these initiatives to see if they are driving more traffic to correlating zones, i.e. the changing rooms.

Location based analytics also enables retailers to analyse the optimal length of the in-store experience for each store location. For example, how long is the dwell time when it starts to negatively impact conversion rates? Longer dwell times are seen as a positive when the client is engaged and conversion rates are increasing, but when the conversion starts to drop it may mean that customers are spending too much time waiting or queuing for example.

Not a lot of help

My final outing was to another iconic bastion of the luxury sector.

In operational terms, one bad mark against them was that after being in the store for nearly 15 minutes, not a single sales adviser had spoken to me. This was also the smallest store I visited so there really was no excuse for the lack of attention, especially as I was the only person in there at the time. Perhaps I just didn’t look like their kind of customer.

InIgnore some ways being given the freedom to browse unmolested by staff was a blessing, but being completely ignored is just as bad as being bombarded with offers of help. It’s a perfect example of how important it is to get the balance right.

That said, the store itself was well appointed and had a good designer feel about it. The window display was impressive with some clever lighting effects. Merchandise in the store was placed across a number of different levels meaning that customers were encouraged to look up towards smaller items, whilst clothing was within easy reach lower down.

It seemed this store was aimed at local businesspeople browsing in their downtime, and in that sense the clothing offer and the environment were perfectly pitched to that market.

Certainly not a bad shop, but in my opinion not really hugely inspiring either. But then perhaps I’m not in their target demographic, which might also explain why none of their staff seemed to notice me.

ShopperTrak says: Window displays in this sector are often designed to be ‘showstoppers’ that reflect the opulence and fashion-forward approach so synonymous with luxury. It’s key that retailers measure the success of visual merchandising to understand the impact it’s having on draw rates, i.e. the number of people entering the store.

So a real triumvirate of an in-store experience. Something I’m itching to characterise as the good, the bad and the ugly, although that’s perhaps unfair to at least one of them. It was certainly an eye-opener in terms of the wide range of approaches to what is undoubtedly a narrow market sector. Some of the stores radiated an obvious nonchalance towards customer interaction, whereas others were falling over themselves to engage. From an experiential perspective I think stores number one and three could benefit from a proper independent mystery shopper report, with store number one needing a really fresh eye cast over the shop-floor design and customer experience perspective.

For my own part I saw some great ideas in shop number 2 that showed just how well things could be done, not just in the luxury market, but across the board. Factors that I’m sure will inform the way I approach such things in any future store environments I set up or advise on. Just like haute couture designs eventually filter down to the more mass market, we can all take aspects of these stores to use in our own businesses, even if we maybe can’t afford the full outfit.

Join me next time when I’ll be looking at electronics and tech retailers.  For more information on ShopperTrak’s full range of analytic services by click the link below.

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Oxford Finally Flips The Switch On The On/Off Shopping Centre

westgateoxfordOxford is an ancient city.  Even by medieval standards things move slowly here.  So after what seems like centuries of wrangling, planning applications, withdrawn projects, hand shaking and head banging, Oxford is finally set to join other cities with a giant shiny shopping centre nobody really needs any more.

Having experienced the damage that these behemoths can do to small local retailers, myself included, this is a moment I and many others have dreaded.

The council of course has applied a heavy spin on the whole project, whilst ushering the developers and large multi-nationals into the city with wide-eyed certainty that a new shopping centre will solve all the problems we now have.

We know at least one of those problems – that of affordable housing in the city centre – won’t even be dented by this grandiose project.  In a move that is frankly baffling from a socialist led council, planners have dashed all hopes that the accommodation element designed into the revamped centre would be for social housing or affordable homes.  Whilst Green councillors opposed this move, others apparently felt that poorer people won’t be able to keep the new apartments up to the standards they expect to be demanded.

So no comfortable inner-city pied-à-terres for the ordinary folk of Oxford then.  Which is a shame considering Oxford City Council provided virtually nothing for that sector last year, despite claims that this was a priority policy.

Jobs are not the only thing to consider

Judging by the analyses carried out over the past 10 years it looks highly likely that the new Westgate extension in Oxford will have a significant impact on other retail destinations both in the immediate vicinity and county wide.

The council has claimed that 3400 jobs will be created by the opening of the new centre, which seems like a rather optimistic number to me.  Even if one accepts that figure, previous analyses have suggested that the number of jobs created will be far outweighed by those that will be destroyed elsewhere in the city and the surrounding areas.

It’s very easy to focus just on the number of jobs created, but when similar centres have opened there have been many casualties in other areas. This doesn’t even take into account the damage that’s likely to be done to trade during the building and infrastructure works and the impact of additional competition for small retailers that attracting large multi-nationals into the area will provide.

Until the council addresses the systemic issues with people visiting the city, such as parking, local transport and city centre management, a revamped shopping centre isn’t going to add that much prosperity to a town encircled by much better alternatives.  There’s also some question over likely losses to the council in terms of business rates which could run in to hundreds of thousands.

The new shopping centre will likely have some novelty value for a few months, but once the realities of trading in Oxford begin to bite, I doubt it’ll be anything more than another usual-suspect clone-town brand zoo.

Years of disruption

According to a recent article in the Oxford Mail, a scrutinising committee of city centre councillors are due to meet to discuss ways of keeping businesses alive during the hugely disruptive infrastructure works needed for the new extension.

roadworksSo Oxford City Council wait until AFTER the works have begun to think about how to mitigate the problems that will inevitably be caused by the works?

Another great example of the forethought and careful planning we’ve come to expect from our wonderful city council!

I was at a meeting with both the city and county council leaders over a year ago where I highlighted the potential damage that will be done by the infrastructure works required for the Westgate extension. Having already experienced the same in Bristol a few years before, it was clear to me and many others that the likely upheaval required for the Westgate works were going to do more damage than they were likely to be worth in the current climate.

Seems like it all fell on deaf ears. As usual.

Empty shops

My business in Cornmarket Street closed it’s doors for the last time after 20 years last year. Despite numerous pronouncements in the press that the city council was eager to support local businesses, we got zip-all support, even after asking on several occasions.  Indeed, at one point their planning department were very close to scuppering the only deal we could achieve to sell the store. Had they not done a last minute U-turn there would have been one more empty and un-lettable shop in the city centre.

In an era where many retail chains are looking to reduce their portfolios, the time for this centre has been and gone.   At the end of this year, 40% of retail leases nationwide will come to an end, sparking speculation that many large and medium chains won’t renew them.  The costs of retail space in many towns, Oxford included, is now at odds with likely returns on investment.  A new mall plonked into the middle of that scenario risks hoovering up any viable city retailer, leaving the existing shopping areas a wasteland as companies let leases lapse and move on.

There’s already plenty of retail space in Oxford city centre, some of it lying vacant even now.  Not least the huge former HMV store, empty for most of last year in what should be a prime location on Cornmarket.  The new Westgate development will seriously shift the focus of the town away from the existing shopping areas with the main anchor store, John Lewis, being located well away from the current main shopping destinations.  Again this is a very similar scenario to Bristol’s Cabot Circus development, which saw most of the legacy retail locations abandoned en masse by any store that could afford the move.

Councillors are also now apparently worried about the growing number of empty shops in the city, despite previous claims that there were queues of businesses eager to take space.  Perhaps news has started to filter out that retailing in Oxford is not what it once was.

In that context one has to wonder who is going to populate the new cathedral of consumption when it is finally completed, and for those that do take up residence, what kind of trading environment will they find?  With one of the worst December trading periods on record just behind us and radical changes in consumer habits continuing apace, it really does beg the question about how much space will be required when the Westgate centre is completed in 2017.  Moreover what will the rest of the city look like once all the remaining viable stores have de-camped into the waiting warmth of a lovely new mall?

910484_23238014With council plans to push up the cost of parking YET AGAIN and the negative impact of roadworks, and the city centre looking like a building site, it’s likely most consumers will continue to go elsewhere to shop, surrounded as we are by much more attractive and easily reached locations around the city and the county.  And once again, experience tells me that once people find better alternatives, they’re unlikely to return, other than for a quick nose around the new development.

A committee composed of councillors with absolutely no idea how businesses in Oxford operate, setting out to ‘examine’ how to deal with these issues now, is tantamount to closing the door after the horse has bolted, lived out it’s natural life and ended up in a dog food tin.  This project as has been in the planning stages for so many years it’s truly staggering that the implications are only being discussed now.

Oxford is of course known as the city of ‘dreaming spires’.  It seems that in terms of strategic planning, many of our councillors have also been asleep on the job.

Phones 4U – The Winners And Losers

phones 4UThe announcement by Phones 4u’s administrator Price Waterhouse Coopers that it is closing 362 of the retailer’s stores permanently really is an appalling outcome for the 1697 store staff who now find themselves out of a job.

I feel very sorry for these people at the sharp end of what seems on the face of it to be a rather sordid tale. I know from speaking to some of the employees that most had absolutely no idea that their jobs were balanced on such a knife edge, and from what I understand from other reports, senior management had little inkling either.

Perhaps they should have had though. Certainly the company’s main investors could have shown a little more sensitivity to the likely outcome of negotiations with the four main carriers when they explained that they weren’t able to offer competitive terms in the face of a mountain of debt that needed to be serviced. Especially as a good deal of that debt was apparently self imposed as a result of some rather creative financial arrangements.

Equally Vodafone and EE should perhaps have considered the impression their actions would give to their own customers when they, fairly unceremoniously, pulled the rug from under a long-term business partner. Perhaps they weren’t prepared for Phones 4U management to take such drastic action. I know I was personally flabbergasted at how easily they appeared to give up the fight when the Vodafone contract had another 6 months left to run and EE’s wasn’t due to expire for a further year.

Most businesses would have kept trading and explored other possibilities, probably including some hasty re-trenching and fence mending with all the carriers. Of course I’m not privy to all the reasons for their decision to go into administration so eagerly, but it seems to me that a business with over a billion pound turnover and profits in excess of £100M might have been worth a little more effort than a press of the nuclear button without further attempts at diplomacy. I’ve certainly seen many much smaller businesses struggle to stay afloat for a lot longer than these guys.

Easy Money

Maybe that’s the problem. For those companies already staked in the game, the mobile phone business has been seen for some time as easy money. The phones and tariffs are laid on by other companies and an obliging public pitches up every time one or the other produces another subtle flavour of hardware or call package that in essence does the same thing as the last, only slightly better. These carefully stage managed increments keep the punters hooked and the cash rolling in. Perhaps when things got a little tougher than that for the board, it’s just wasn’t worth the trouble.

Now the very same carriers that precipitated this situation are reportedly picking off the juicier fruit from the P4U property cherry bowl for their own standalone stores. After an epiphany, undoubtedly born of the internet, they’ve discovered that cutting out the middle men means the money tree just grew a bit taller.

It’ll be interesting to see if tariffs are reduced accordingly now there’s one less bite out of the pie. But somehow I doubt it, especially as most of the carriers have of late been furiously re-writing their contracts in ways that haven’t been particularly advantageous to their customers. And let’s not forget that, with a reduction in competition on the high street, the consumer is going to have less opportunity shop around. As the carriers take more of a direct sales approach, the choice will be limited to service and coverage rather than tariff with fewer independent resellers to stir the pot.

I suppose grabbing the tastier morsels of the Phones 4 U portfolio is a pragmatic move, but it still looks like opportunism born of fancy footwork on their part. In the final analysis the people who have, justifiably or not, pulled the plug are now picking over the bones of a business that previously appeared to be thriving.

A Dream Outcome For Dixons Carphone

Dixons Carphone don’t come out of this smelling like roses either, even though I suppose they can’t be held accountable for the actions of their own suppliers, it does look like a superlative bit of luck on their part that shortly after announcing the closure of 160 Phones 4U concessions in their Currys stores, their main competitor loses all support from their mutual partners. I’m not suggesting there was any collusion involved, but it does seem like the kind of dream outcome that many a rival company would have to pinch themselves hard to believe.

To be fair, Dixons have offered jobs to many of the former concessions staff, which does of course also provide them with a ready made workforce. They’ve also been making efforts to acquire a number of the Phones 4U locations and have been promising jobs for the staff involved in those locations. However it’s understood that the administrators have been less than enthusiastic, so one can only speculate as to the kinds of offers Dixons Carphone are making for the properties. Dixons taking over the stores could of course safeguard of a number of jobs, but they still stand to gain a lot out of the deal themselves.

bad smellThere were undoubtedly a lot of contributory circumstances leading up to this meltdown, but it still leaves a very nasty taste in my mouth and a hell of a stink under my nose. A ludicrous situation and a sad outcome that could have been avoided at so many key points. I only hope all parties concerned, including the P4U investors and management, the carriers, and Dixons Carphone are as uncomfortable about all this as I am.

Although I doubt any of us will be as uncomfortable as the store staff and their families who suddenly find themselves without an income so close to Christmas.

The Undercover Analyst – How Focussed is Fashion on the High Street?

main logo blueAs part of a new project in association with retail analytics experts ShopperTrak, I’m going to be looking at the retail landscape in areas around the UK and sharing some insights through regular blog posts. Taking a broad cross section of market sectors and visiting specific but unnamed stores, I’m going to be commenting on how they fare on certain operational areas identified by ShopperTrak as being key to a successful and customer responsive store. I’ll be looking for good and bad practices, innovative ideas and exemplars for all of us to either follow or avoid in our own businesses.

My starting point was my home town of Oxford where I looked at mid-range high-street fashion. I’ve run stores in Oxford myself for nearly 20 years so I’ve witnessed the evolution of the local commercial environment at first hand.  The central retail core in Oxford is not much larger than you’d find in any town centre high street and consists of three main shopping thoroughfares, two indoor shopping centres and a covered market catering almost exclusively for independents. The main shopping street is Cornmarket, where most of this survey was based. Around six major stores were visited each with large footprints and each selling quite similar products to a broad demographic of fashion conscious 18-35 year olds.

Same difference

910484_23238014The overriding impression across most of the mainstream stores was that they all bought their shopfits from the same generic contractors. With the exception of one store, well themed towards their target customers, store layouts were similar to the point of duplication. It may be the nature of the beast that there are only so many ways you can support a clothes hanger, but shop-fittings generally looked like they were ‘off the shelf’, even though I’d imagine they weren’t.

Considering the size of some of these companies and their large marketing spend, brand identification in some stores was not as strong as it should have been. You could have dropped me blindfolded into any one of these stores and I’d have had a hard time telling you which one I was in.

ShopperTrak says : Differentiation is key. Location-based analytics provide retailers with the tools they need to understand the customer profile better, especially how shoppers are moving around the shop floor. As Ian points out, many stores have similar layouts but this is often down to guess work rather than knowing exactly how customers are moving through the store. Understanding the customer journey improves the overall experience so retailers need to have an accurate view of what is happening in store to help them measure effectiveness and constantly make improvements. By doing this we may see an end to all stores looking the same.

SALE SALE SALE!

Some of this anonymity might have been down to the fact that it appeared to be the height of the summer sales in the hallowed city with the main shopping areas a sea of red and white signage.

These days it’s quite difficult to pick out more than 2 consecutive weeks when someone isn’t on sale. The necessity to strip window and internal displays down to the bare-bones during such promotions left no real indication of how attractive the window dressing would normally be. Window displays have somewhat fallen out of favour in recent years, dividing between the bog standard or the eye-popping retail theatre. Of course your window display is supposedly the thing that draws customers inside your store, so outside of sale periods it has to be an important consideration.

ShopperTrak says : Traffic patterns change over different periods – particularly so during a sale. Even though the store feels busier retailers need to be sure that their promotions are actually driving the maximum number of customers to make a purchase. By analysing draw rates, or the ability to bring people into the store, retailers can measure whether promotions and merchandising are helping to entice their fair share of shoppers over the threshold versus competitors. If the draw rate begins to fall it’s a sure sign that visual merchandising is not working as effectively as it should be.

Location, Location, Location!

Internal store layouts seemed to be quite ad hoc. Most large stores use pre-planned merchandising plans produced by head office but none of them seemed particularly well suited to traffic flow in store, neither did they look like they could be responsive to dead zones that were fairly evident. For example, retail environment guru Paco Underhill has identified the area around your main entrance as the ‘landing pad’. His suggestion was that nothing should be placed here as customers are usually looking further into the store to see where they were headed. That seemed pretty much the case in one store where a large gondola had been plonked right in the entrance-way – it was pretty much ignored by everyone coming through the door.

1215579_52407894The other obvious fail in my opinion was the tendency to place items that were in the sale at the back of the store. The intuitive logic is of course that this will draw customers further into the store, presumably wowing them with the non-promotional stock on the way. Personal experience combined with this particular visit tell me that this strategy is far too simplistic. Most customers looked straight to the rear of the store and bypassed everything else on their quest to get to the cheaper goodies. There may have been a method in this apparent madness. Keeping the sales hysteria at the back of the shop along with the associated mess and mis-matched merchandise may be a good move in some cases. Also I guess there’s a chance that customers may give the full priced stock another look on the way out after perhaps finding nothing in the sale to their liking.

In these days of eye-watering rent and rates, customer flow within a store is something that needs careful analysis. It’s really not something that can be left to gut instinct or rigidly pre-planned merchandising charts.

ShopperTrak says : Heat maps help retailers determine which areas customers are dwelling in and how long they spend there. This is crucial when analysing the effectiveness of merchandising and product placement. It also enables stores to re-invigorate quieter zones or analyse changes to determine the optimum store layout. On a micro-level retailers can examine conversion rates within specific areas of the store to gain a deeper level of insight into overall performance.

Customer experience

The general customer experience in all but one of the stores visited was pretty good. Stock displays were generally well maintained, apart from one rather tired looking mannequin that personally I’d have pensioned off years ago.

One of the more mainstream stores was a fairly recent opening so had the benefit of newer merchandising displays. This certainly gave a fresher look which was enhanced by the large airy feel of the store. They also had a good layout of stock with accessories and handbags at the front where they can be easily browsed and selected ‘on the hoof’, with items such as shoes at the rear where more time and interaction with staff would be required. However here, as with all the stores visited, staff engagement with customers was nigh on non-existent. Perhaps the labour intensive nature of the display floor meant that sales adviser’s saw maintenance of displays as a higher property than talking to customers.

Personally I’ve always trained my staff to aim at somewhere between intrusive and attentive. Many of the stores I visited could have benefited from tasking particular members of their sales teams with approaching customers on a one to one basis. There’s an obvious ethos with many of these stores that it’s self-service and customers only receive service when they ask for it. But these shops are semi-aspirational in design, they’re not supermarkets. They’re selling desirable fashion, not tins of sweetcorn. In that environment there’s nothing worse than leaving customers with the impression that interaction is bottom of the service remit.

827556_46291532In general though customer service was OK. We saw one person leave a pay point empty while a customer waited patiently, which wasn’t great, but as it was our fault for sending them on the hunt for a different size of a T-shirt that might be an unfair observation. It’s a dilemma for any sales adviser when there’s only one of you but two people who need your help. Perhaps something that could be sorted with better planning of staffing patterns.

ShopperTrak says : Understanding how many people are coming in to the store and which areas they’re dwelling in is a crucial reflection of the overall customer experience. Increasing the average time that shoppers spend in store helps to drive both conversion rates and average transaction sizes. If they stay in the shop longer it means they’re having a better experience.

Retailers can use interior analytics to measure dwell times, looking at whether shoppers are spending the right amount of time in the right areas, how staff are engaging with customers, how well queues are being dealt with or how effectively promotions are working.

Messy but busy

Only one store had significant queues at the pay point and this was also the store with the most untidy shop floor. Perhaps an indication that tidy displays don’t necessarily mean better sales. Or maybe the trashed shop floor just shows how busy they were. However they seemed to be a victim of their own success with at least one case of abandonment being observed as customers tired of waiting to part with their hard earned cash. Again I suspect proper deployment of staff and maybe a re-think on merchandising strategy would help with problems like this.

ShopperTrak says : Retailers need to have an accurate view of their power hours – i.e. their peak selling times. Only by having insight into this can they plan accordingly. Any re-stocking or staff breaks should take place outside of these times in order to ensure the most effective shopper to assistant ratio. Put simply, the fewer the staff available in store during peak traffic times the worse the customer experience is going to be.

As a first outing it was an interesting exercise for me. There are obvious compromises between function and form and many competing demands on the time of the floor staff. But there were many obvious improvements that could be made, perhaps with the assistance of some location-based analytics, particularly in terms of customer flow data and staff movements.

Join me next time when I’ll be looking at how luxury brands fare.  In the meantime you can check out ShopperTrak’s full range of analytic services by clicking the link below.

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Freefall retail?

Shop to letWelcome to my new blog.   For my first post I thought I’d jump right in the deep end!

Evidence from the Local Data Company and Price Waterhouse Coopers yesterday highlighted the unprecedented number of store closures that have been seen in the last 12 months.  This was driven mainly by the gathering pace of large retail chains turning up their toes and other struggling companies letting leases lapse when they come to an end.

It’s hardly surprising to most of us out there at the sharp end of retail that the status quo can’t continue unabashed in the way that most property investors and some analysts seem to think it can.

Only last year I was embroiled in something of an online spat with the author of a report from CBRE who in my opinion was whistling in the dark over the idea that chain retailers would continue to open stores at the same rate they always had.  The whistling later achieved deafening proportions as the idea that the internet had not had any major impact on the high streets was laboured in this lengthy tome.  Given the opportunity,  I think it may have gone on to prove that black was white and that dogs could do basic arithmetic, but they probably needed to get the report out before reality overtook the theory.

Killer catalogues

The fact is the internet is having a pervasive effect on all aspects of the high street.  It’s been eating away like concrete cancer at the foundations of what we’ve all came to know and love as shop keepers, and we’re only now starting to see the cracks on the surface.

CataloguesIt’s effect was probably underestimated in the early years as we all continued to ride a wave of unbridled consumerism within traditional channels.  The idea that the internet could take over from ‘real’ shops was treated with the same disdain as the unfulfilled predictions from the 60s and 70s that catalogue shopping would prove an overall category killer.

But what wasn’t factored into these assessments was the ease by which technology would  pervade all aspects of our lives.  Even that wouldn’t have been enough on it’s own, but what really started to incubate the disease was what was happening to the real world property model and just how quickly that was going push things beyond the tipping point.

In previous retail revolutions there had been no viable alternative to shops.  Now there was.  As consumers embraced online, more retailers, new and old, saw it as an opportunity.  This in turn facilitated more choice and more ease of use for consumers which in turn encouraged more people online.  It became self fuelling.

Meanwhile at the other end of the fulcrum, property costs were starting to look like a burden you didn’t need to be carrying.  If all these pure-play retailers were making a killing online, what was the point in paying eye-watering rent and rates?  In fact as these costs continued to go up, the internet was forcing margins to become slimmer with the retailer squeezed in the middle.   Something that the catalogue revolution didn’t have going for it back in the days of brothel creepers and Beatlemania was the effect that these unrealistic property values would have on the whole DNA of retail.

Property Bonanza

The plain fact is that the costs of running shops is now too high.   Business rates are the current hobby horse, being as we’re coming up to the time of the year when the chancellor traditionally tells retailers to sod off when they ask him to consider a rates reduction or freeze in his next budget.   This year his two fingered salute will be amid our pleading on a collective bended knee for him to take his foot off our neck and maybe, just maybe, take a look at the real world from behind that rictus grin that he seems to be afflicted with at most public engagements.

But rents are the root cause of these problems, responsible in the first place for the level of rates we pay due to their effect on property valuations.  The cost of stores has been ratcheting up over the past 20 years like some sort of medieval torture device.  Landlords and property developers knew a good thing when they saw it and they capitalised on the rush to the high street.  Not really something any of us could really blame them for doing, bearing in mind that all us business folk are money grabbing, capitalist toe-rags at heart.

And I don’t really blame them, well not entirely anyway.  They wouldn’t have got away with it if there hadn’t been a veritable swarm of  eager fresh faced retailers, thrusting fistfulls of easy-come cash into the air, desperate to stake out another corner of a foreign concept shopping mall that will forever be Clinton Cards or Blacks or LaSenza or Jessops et al, without a thought for how long the retail bubble could last.  Of course we all now know how long it lasted for them, and it was quite a bit less than forever.

For sale signsIn turn these snow-blinded captains of industry were having their pockets lined by investors, venture capitalists and banks who were convinced they’d discovered the secret to alchemy.  In league with eagerly complicit surveyors they could make any deal, no matter how stupid, look good on a paper.  Right before they’d make a toy aeroplane out of it to carry them all off to bonus heaven.  Based on this sort of economic fairy story, valuers pretty much doubled the number they first thought of and used that as the basis of equity to debt deals that would have made even the most brazen ponzi scheme look like a charitable foundation for orphaned kittens.

Now with shopping centres and retailers being funded by roughly the same financial institutions, we’re all hurtling down the mountain side together waiting for either a tree branch to slap us in the face or the sheer drop to open up beneath us.   I say all, not because everyone has bought into the madness, I know many haven’t, but because we will all feel the impact when those that have hit the rocks below.

The only way is up

Despite claims to the contrary, landlords are still locked into forcing up rents at every opportunity.  Often with huge debts to service, they have no choice but to look on the current situation as a temporary blip.  They spin the crisis while convincing themselves and the markets that ideas like pop-up stores are a great new innovation, even though when they were simply called temporary lets they were regarded as far less desirable.  Self delusion has become an artform.  Accepting the new reality is just too terrifying for them and their financial backers to contemplate.  Whilst government is apparently still convinced that they can continue to enthusiastically milk the retail cash cow, even if it does have BSE and an advanced case of mastitis

All the while customers are becoming ever more savvy at negotiating the new retail seascape, and in the most part they’re looking for the shallow waters.  Price is king on the internet, quality too, but price usually trumps quality if you chuck in a nice over-used euphemism like ‘Value’ wherever possible.  And we all know how well ‘Value’ beefburgers have worked out recently don’t we?

These customers don’t care if your shop is going under, why should they?  They care about where they can get the best deal, and now more than ever that’s on the internet.  Why?  Because those traditional retailers stuck on the high street are locked into a death struggle with recalcitrant landlords and ignorant politicians and can’t afford to match the razor thin margins of pure-play online retailers.

Where will it all end?  That’s something I hope to be around long enough to find out.  There are some perhaps positive glimmers on the horizon, but right now it’s not possible to know if that’s the new day breaking or the sun exploding on the other side of the world.

Will we need sun cream or a nuclear bunker?  Stick around, I think I can hear the dawn chorus.

sunrise_from_space_2560x1600